Texas Mosquito Forecast

Back to Map

How Our Mosquito Forecast Works

The science and data behind the Texas Mosquito Forecast interactive map

The Texas Mosquito Forecast is a free, interactive tool that predicts mosquito activity levels across the state of Texas using a combination of live weather data, geographic modeling, and ecological analysis. Unlike simple temperature-based estimates found elsewhere, our model incorporates over a dozen variables to produce hyper-local forecasts that differentiate between neighborhoods just miles apart.

The forecast updates every time you load the map, pulling the latest data from the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and the USGS National Hydrography Dataset (NHD).

Live Weather Data

Weather is the primary driver of mosquito activity on any given day. Our model ingests real-time data from 25 weather stations distributed across Texas, then uses Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation to create a continuous weather surface covering the entire state.

Temperature

Hourly and daily max/min temperatures from the GFS model. Mosquitoes enter dormancy below 50°F (a sharp biological threshold) and are most active between 70-85°F. Our model applies a sigmoid dormancy cliff that accurately captures this on/off behavior.

Dewpoint & Humidity

High dewpoints indicate atmospheric moisture that keeps breeding pools from evaporating and creates ideal flight conditions. Dewpoints above 65°F significantly boost mosquito activity, while dry air below 45°F suppresses it heavily.

Wind Speed

Mosquitoes are weak fliers that struggle in any significant wind. Our model applies graduated suppression: activity drops 20% at 10 mph, 50% at 15 mph, and 85% at 20+ mph. A separate hard multiplier captures the complete grounding effect of sustained high winds.

14-Day Rainfall History

This is the most critical weather variable. Mosquito eggs hatch 3-7 days after standing water forms, so recent rainfall history matters more than today's rain. We track three windows: last 48 hours (fresh pools), 3-6 day lag (hatching peak), and 7-14 day lag (mature adults emerging).

Cloud Cover

Overcast skies reduce evaporation of standing water, keeping breeding pools viable longer. Clouds also moderate temperatures and extend the active flight hours for mosquitoes that prefer twilight conditions.

Active Precipitation

Heavy rain temporarily grounds adult mosquitoes (they can't fly in rain), but the standing water it creates fuels the next generation. Our model distinguishes between hourly snapshots (heavy rain penalty) and daily outlook (rain-as-breeding-benefit).

Geographic & Ecological Modeling

Weather tells you what mosquitoes are doing today; geography tells you where they can thrive in the first place. Our baseline layer models permanent landscape features that determine a location's inherent mosquito-carrying capacity.

USGS National Hydrography Dataset

We overlay real river, stream, canal, and water body data from the USGS NHD to boost risk near waterways. This adds fine-grained texture — areas adjacent to bayous, creeks, and retention ponds score higher than areas just a mile away.

Gulf Coast Proximity

Salt marshes, tidal flats, and coastal wetlands along the Texas Gulf Coast are year-round breeding habitat for multiple mosquito species. Our model applies a coastal proximity boost that decays with distance from the shore.

Regional Moisture Zones

Specific geographic areas have elevated baseline risk: the Galveston Bay marshes, Houston's bayou network, Rio Grande Valley resacas, East Texas piney woods, and the Golden Triangle wetlands around Beaumont/Port Arthur.

Climate Gradients

Texas spans from the arid Trans-Pecos desert (10 inches of rain/year) to the subtropical Gulf Coast (60+ inches). Our east-west moisture gradient and north-south temperature gradient capture this fundamental variation in mosquito habitat quality.

Terrain Suppression

Arid zones like the Trans-Pecos, Panhandle, and Edwards Plateau/Hill Country have rocky, fast-draining terrain that doesn't hold standing water. These areas receive graduated suppression that accurately reflects their low mosquito potential.

Urban Core Effects

Dense urban cores (like downtown Houston or Dallas) have less breeding habitat due to concrete surfaces and engineered storm drainage. Our model applies a subtle urban suppression that differentiates downtown areas from mosquito-heavy suburbs and rural zones.

Hourly Activity Modeling

In hourly forecast mode, our model applies a diel (daily) activity curve based on mosquito behavioral biology. Most mosquito species in Texas are crepuscular — most active at dawn and dusk — with twin peaks around 5:30 AM and 7:30 PM. Activity drops significantly during the hottest midday hours and remains moderate overnight.

This means the same location can show a score of 45/100 at 2:00 PM but 78/100 at 7:30 PM. If you're planning an outdoor event, checking the hourly mode can help you pick the best timing.

Model Validation

~98%
Pearson Correlation with Trap Data

Our model's predicted seasonal curve was validated against published BG-trap mosquito surveillance data from Harris County, Texas (Gunter et al. 2025). The Pearson correlation coefficient between our model's monthly predictions and actual trap counts is approximately 0.984, indicating excellent agreement in seasonal shape and timing.

Validation was performed by running our model against historical monthly climate normals for the Houston area and comparing the resulting risk curve to normalized BG-trap catch rates across the same months. The model accurately captures the spring ramp-up, summer peak, and fall decline observed in real surveillance data.

Understanding the Score

Every location on the map receives a score from 0 to 100 representing predicted mosquito activity level. Here's what the ranges mean:

ScoreLevelWhat It Means
0-20 Low Minimal mosquito activity. Comfortable for extended outdoor time without repellent.
21-40 Moderate Some mosquito presence, especially near water and at dusk. Light precautions recommended.
41-60 High Noticeable mosquito activity. Use repellent for outdoor activities, especially in the evening.
61-80 Very High Heavy mosquito presence. Repellent strongly recommended. Limit prolonged outdoor exposure at dawn/dusk.
81-100 Extreme Peak mosquito conditions. Stay indoors at dawn/dusk if possible. Eliminate any standing water on your property.

Data Sources

NOAA Global Forecast System

Hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation forecasts. Accessed via the Open-Meteo API with 14-day historical rainfall and 7-day forecast windows.

USGS National Hydrography Dataset

High-resolution waterway geometry (rivers, streams, canals, water bodies) used for proximity-based breeding habitat modeling.

OpenStreetMap / CARTO

Base map tiles and geographic labels rendered via CartoDB's dark theme tileset.

Validation Reference

Gunter et al. (2025) — BG-trap mosquito surveillance data from Harris County Mosquito & Vector Control. Monthly trap counts used for seasonal curve validation.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is mosquito season in Texas?
Mosquito season in Texas typically runs from March through November, with peak activity from May through October. In South Texas and along the Gulf Coast, mosquitoes can be active nearly year-round thanks to mild winters. The sharpest increase usually happens in late April and May as temperatures consistently stay above 70°F and spring rains create breeding habitat. Activity drops quickly once nighttime temperatures regularly fall below 50°F in the fall.
What time of day are mosquitoes most active?
Most Texas mosquito species are crepuscular, meaning they're most active during twilight hours. The primary peak is at dusk (roughly 7:00-9:00 PM), with a secondary peak at dawn (roughly 5:00-6:30 AM). Activity is lowest during the hottest part of the afternoon (1:00-4:00 PM) when heat and low humidity make flying energetically costly. Use our hourly forecast mode to see predicted activity levels for each hour of the day at any location.
Why does my area show high risk when I don't see many mosquitoes?
The forecast predicts environmental conditions favorable to mosquito activity — it doesn't count individual mosquitoes. Your personal experience depends on factors we can't model: whether your yard has standing water, local mosquito control spraying schedules, how much time you spend outdoors at peak hours, and even your individual attractiveness to mosquitoes (which varies by body chemistry). A high score means conditions are ripe for mosquito activity in your area, not that every backyard will be equally affected.
Why is Houston so much higher than Dallas?
Houston's combination of Gulf Coast proximity, extensive bayou network, flat terrain that pools water, high humidity, and milder winters creates near-ideal mosquito conditions. Dallas is further inland with lower humidity, less standing water, and colder winters that provide a longer dormancy period. That said, Dallas can still reach high scores after heavy rainfall events, especially in areas near the Trinity River floodplain.
Does the forecast account for mosquito spraying?
No. Our model predicts natural mosquito activity based on weather and environmental conditions. Local mosquito control programs (aerial spraying, larvicide treatments, etc.) can temporarily reduce actual mosquito populations below what our model predicts. Check with your county's mosquito control district for information about local spraying schedules.
Can I embed this map on my website?
Yes! We offer a free embed code that lets you add the Texas Mosquito Forecast to any website or blog. Visit the main map page and scroll down to the "Embed This Map" section for the iframe code. The embedded map is fully interactive and pulls live data, so your visitors always see the current forecast.
What does the 7-day forecast show?
The 7-day forecast uses weather predictions from the NOAA Global Forecast System to project mosquito activity levels for each of the next seven days. It factors in predicted temperatures, rainfall, humidity, and wind. Note that forecast accuracy decreases further out — days 1-3 are highly reliable, while days 5-7 carry more uncertainty as weather predictions become less precise.
Why are there different scores for cities just a few miles apart?
Mosquito habitat varies significantly over short distances. A city near a river or bayou, in a low-lying area that retains water, or surrounded by wetlands will score higher than a nearby city on well-drained rocky soil. Our model captures these differences through waterway proximity data, regional moisture zones, terrain analysis, and urban drainage characteristics.
How can I protect myself when the forecast is high?
When scores are elevated: use EPA-registered repellent containing DEET, picaridin, or oil of lemon eucalyptus; wear long sleeves and pants during dawn and dusk; eliminate standing water on your property (flower pots, gutters, bird baths, old tires); ensure window and door screens are intact; and consider running fans on porches and patios, since even a light breeze disrupts mosquito flight.
Is this forecast available for other states?
We're currently building forecasts for additional Gulf Coast and Southeast states including Florida, Louisiana, and Georgia. Follow us for updates on new state launches.

Check Today's Forecast

See the current mosquito activity level for your area of Texas.

View the Interactive Map